Welcome to Energy Data Expert!

sunset-1149064_1920

Welcome to Energy Data Expert!

Your energy technology selection expert has written and developed a number of energy and power generation technology articles and supplemented them with easy-to-use and state-of-the-art project finance models for renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, hybrid and energy storage power generation technologies.

The energy and power generation technologies are available in power point format so that when you order them, you can download the article and edit the file to make your own presentation.

The articles will provide you leads to enhance further your knowledge by way of more internet search keys to arrive at more articles to improve the quality and coverage of your research paper.

Using a single template, various project finance models were developed and is now available to all interested users at a reasonable license fee so that project developers can compare the economics of various power generation technologies or optimize the configuration of a technology, and thus help the developer prepare a comprehensive feasibility study.

To contact the expert, please email me to get more information, at the following email address:

 

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

Cheers to all readers and visitors:

 

Your Energy Data Expert

Your Energy Technology Selection Expert

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power plant project finance model

How to use the advanced (regulator) petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 3,000 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,034 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 37.80 $/kW/year (target cost) = 3,452.00 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 30.26 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 311.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of petcoke fuel = 14,670 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 8,800 Btu/kWh (38.77% thermal efficiency)

Cost of petcoke fuel = 100.00 $/MT = 5,030 PhP/MT = 5.030 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 110.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 110.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                     93.57% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                           95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    80.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                  0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2016)

operating period = 25 years (start 2019)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                    20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                   100.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $397.64 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,473.90 12.2%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 62.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 50.1%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $398
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $203,471
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $2,480
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $37,713
   Construction Contingency $9,563
   Value Added Tax $17,649
   Financing Costs $35,496
   Initial Working Capital $22,443
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $329,999
                                 – PhP 000 16,597,985
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $230,999
   Equity $99,000
Total Sources of Fund $329,999

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 50 %

Foreign Capital = 50 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 15.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (50% local, 50% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 12
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.80% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 12.43% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.70% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.16152 P/kWh = 0.12250 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        28,602,223 1.52063
Lubes                2,133 0.00011
Var O&M          4,696,641 0.24970
Total        33,300,998 1.77044
MWh net        18,809,472
SRMC        33,300,998 1.77044
Fix O&M        10,264,198 0.54569
Capital Cost        72,329,714 3.84539
LRMC      115,894,910 6.16152

 

SRMC = 1.77044 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 6.16152 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 15.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.66    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 12.09        % p.a.

NPV        = (2,424,999)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 15.00%)

PAYBACK = 6.78        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 15.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below

Model Inputs and Results – Petcoke Subcritical

 

Download the complete demo model for a petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Petcoke-fired Thermal 110 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the petcoke-fired SUBCRITICAL model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) nuclear PHWR power plant project finance model

How to use the advanced (regulator) nuclear PHWR power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a nuclear PHWR (pressurized hot water reactor) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a nuclear PHWR power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into nuclear PHWR power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 5,530 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 3,256 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 15th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 93.28 $/kW/year (target cost) = 111,436.79 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.14 $/MWh (target cost) = 10.88 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 370.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of nuclear fuel = 1,676,708,808 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,268 Btu/kWh (33.23% thermal efficiency of steam cycle)

Energy content of nuclear fuel = 3,900 GJ/kg

Electricity generation per kg = 360,000 kWh/kg

Cost of nuclear fuel = 365 (fuel) + 400 (fabrication) = 765 $/kg = 765,000 $/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 1,330.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 1,330.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    96.67% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     98.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                       5.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    90.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.5%

 

construction period = 60 months (start 2014)

operating period = 30 years (start 2019)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   50.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $248.52 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $2,594.07 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 1.00  
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 1.00  
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:  
   Land Cost $249
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $4,329,885
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $40
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $765,110
   Construction Contingency $199,215
   Value Added Tax $379,079
   Financing Costs $1,203,247
   Initial Working Capital $477,586
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $7,355,197
                                 – PhP 000 369,945,067
Sources of Fund:  
   Debt $5,148,638
   Equity $2,206,559
Total Sources of Fund $7,355,197

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.48% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 11.98% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.38% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 7.59514 P/kWh = 0.15101 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        32,825,596 0.11251
Lubes            338,460 0.00116
Var O&M        32,718,776 0.11214
Total        65,882,832 0.22581
MWh net      291,765,159  
SRMC        65,882,832 0.22581
Fix O&M      301,344,116 1.03283
Capital Cost    1,848,769,523 6.33650
LRMC    2,215,996,471 7.59514

SRMC = 0.22581 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 7.59514 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.68 years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 10.96          % p.a.

NPV        = (58,478,322)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 6.73           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Nuclear PHWR

 

Download the complete demo model for a nuclear PHWR power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 – demo5b

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Nuclear 1330 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas OCGT power plant project finance model

How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas OCGT power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a natural gas OCGT (open cycle gas turbine, also known as simple cycle gas turbine) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a natural gas OCGT power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into natural gas OCGT power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 973 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 575 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 7.34 $/kW/year (target cost) = 474.49 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 15.45 $/MWh (target cost) = 40.44 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of natural gas OCGT fuel = 22,129 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,850 Btu/kWh (31.45% thermal efficiency)

Cost of fuel per mmBtu = 9.103 $/mmBtu

Cost of natural gas fuel = 8.628 $/GJ = 444.10 $/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 85.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 85.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    33.24% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     95.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                         5.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    30.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 30 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $49.70 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $479.89 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 1.00  
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 1.00  
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 49.4%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:  
   Land Cost $50
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $51,192
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $40
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $9,226
   Construction Contingency $2,395
   Value Added Tax $4,484
   Financing Costs $8,887
   Initial Working Capital $5,646
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $82,707
                                 – PhP 000 4,159,909
Sources of Fund:  
   Debt $57,895
   Equity $24,812
Total Sources of Fund $82,707

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.49% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 11.99% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.39% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 9.58605 P/kWh = 0.19059 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        34,026,803 5.22921
Lubes                7,548 0.00116
Var O&M          5,315,159 0.81683
Total        39,349,510 6.04720
MWh net          6,507,059  
SRMC        39,349,510 6.04720
Fix O&M          2,630,382 0.40424
Capital Cost        20,397,131 3.13462
LRMC        62,377,023 9.58605

SRMC = 6.04720 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 9.58605 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 10.05 years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.60          % p.a.

NPV        = (570,157)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.29           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Natural Gas Simple Cycle GT

 

Download the complete demo model for a natural gas OCGT power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Natural Gas-fired OCGT 85 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas CCGT power plant project finance model

How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas CCGT power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a natural gas CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a natural gas CCGT power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into natural gas CCGT power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 917 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 575 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 14.13 $/kW/year (target cost) = 6,916.62 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 3.60 $/MWh (target cost) = 26.87 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 370.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of natural gas CCGT fuel = 22,129 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 7,050 Btu/kWh (48.40% thermal efficiency)

Cost of fuel per mmBtu = 9.103 $/mmBtu

Cost of natural gas fuel = 8.628 $/GJ = 444.10 $/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 620.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 620.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    96.40% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     95.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                         5.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    87.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 25 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $99.41 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $458.10 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 1.00  
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 1.00  
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:  
   Land Cost $99
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $356,450
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $40
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $63,157
   Construction Contingency $16,437
   Value Added Tax $31,222
   Financing Costs $61,034
   Initial Working Capital $39,316
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $568,542
                                 – PhP 000 28,596,013
Sources of Fund:  
   Debt $397,979
   Equity $170,563
Total Sources of Fund $568,542

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.48% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 11.97% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.38% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 4.81729 P/kWh = 0.09578 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      391,742,442 3.39778
Lubes            133,745 0.00116
Var O&M        21,841,145 0.18944
Total      413,717,332 3.58838
MWh net      115,293,514  
SRMC      413,717,332 3.58838
Fix O&M        23,045,754 0.19989
Capital Cost      118,638,864 1.02902
LRMC      555,401,951 4.81729

SRMC = 3.58838 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 4.81729 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.87    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.41          % p.a.

NPV        = (4,243,735)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.35           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Natural Gas Combined Cycle GT

Download the complete demo model for a natural gas CCGT power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Natural Gas-fired CCGT 620 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) large hydro power plant project finance model

How to use the advanced (regulator) large hydro power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a large hydro power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a large hydro power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into large hydro power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,936 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,109 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 15th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 14.13 $/kW/year (target cost) = 4,728.61 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.00 $/MWh (target cost) = 8.61 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 100.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (no applicable to large hydro)

Gross heating value of large hydro fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 13,500 Btu/kWh (25.28% thermal efficiency)

Cost of biomass fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 500.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 500.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    57.68% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     92.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                         2.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    52.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.5%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 30 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   40.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $198.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,842.20 43.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 80.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 25.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $500.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $20.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 15.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.5% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 5.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 55.7%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $199
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $1,054,662
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $2,100
   Sub-Station Facility $500
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $47,263
   Construction Contingency $81,295
   Value Added Tax $69,536
   Financing Costs $159,156
   Initial Working Capital $52,733
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $1,467,443
                                 – PhP 000 73,808,108
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $1,027,210
   Equity $440,233
Total Sources of Fund $1,467,443

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 56 %

Foreign Capital = 44 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (56% local, 44% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.58% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 12.11% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.48% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.19949 P/kWh = 0.12326 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                      – 0.00000
Lubes                7,127 0.00011
Var O&M          6,496,970 0.10252
Total          6,504,097 0.10263
MWh net        63,374,220
SRMC          6,504,097 0.10263
Fix O&M        33,657,041 0.53108
Capital Cost      352,726,856 5.56578
LRMC      392,887,994 6.19949

SRMC = 0.10263 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 6.19949 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 10.02    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.65          % p.a.

NPV        = (9,394,578)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.08           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Large Hydro

Download the complete demo model for a large hydro power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

 ADV Large Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Large Hydro 500 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com